A Quantitative Study of the Occurrence of a Railway Accident Based on Belief Functions

In the field of railway systems, there is a great interest to include the human factor in the risk analysis process. Indeed, a great number of accidents are consider to be triggered by the human factors interacting in the situation. Several attempts have been made to include human factors in safety analysis, but they generally attack the problem in a qualitative way. The choice of qualitative methods arises from the difficulty to elicit human behavior and the effects on systems safety. This paper presents a first attempt to account for the human factor by using the generalized bayesian theory and fault tree analysis.